Uzbekistan: è insurrezione?

13 Maggio 2005.

Pubblicato su Reporter Associati

E’ di poche ore fa la notizia di disordini ad Andijon, cittadina nell’estremo oriente dell’Uzbekistan. Precisiamo subito che non si tratta (almeno per ora, mentre scriviamo) di un inizio di “rivoluzione” come avvenuto di recente nel vicino Kirgizistan, o come in Ucraina e in Georgia, poichè l’Uzbekistan ha già un governo filoamericano. Ma non si tratta neppure di “piccoli disordini”, visto che il rapido accavallarsi degli eventi, con 9 morti e l’assalto agli uffici amministrativi e ad un carcere, hanno fatto accorrere nella città il presidente Islam Karimov.

Per comprendere meglio cosa sta avvenendo in questo non tanto remoto angolo di ex-URSS occorre brevemente analizzare il quadro geopolitico locale. Il presidente Islam Karimov (noto tra i musulmani come Ibn Abdulgani Karim-oglu) ha dominato la scena politica da prima del 1989, periodo nel quale era a capo del Soviet Uzbeko. Karimov ha cambiato il nome del Partito Comunista Uzbeko in Partito Democratico del Popolo e ha creato lui stesso dei piccoli partiti d’opposizione i cui segretari sono suoi stretti alleati.

I movimenti di dissenso sono stati eliminati e dall’11 settembre del 2001, tutti i partiti islamici e i gruppi di opposizione sono stati inseriti nelle liste dei terroristi internazionali. Karimov, eletto nel 2000, grazie a una criticata estensione del suo mandato, governerà fino al 2008. Secondo molte organizzazioni umanitarie le condizioni sociali in Uzbekistan sono precarie e il governo attua una repressione crudele nei confronti di tutti gli oppositori.

La pena di morte è ampiamente applicata. Si pratica la schiavizzazione forzata dei bambini per il lavoro nelle piantagioni di cotone e la sterilizzazione forzata delle donne a scopo di controllo demografico

L’economia Uzbeka non versa in buona salute anche se il Paese è il secondo produttore mondiale di cotone e possiede grandi riserve d’oro e petrolio. Il Fondo Monetario Internazionale ha bloccato gli stanziamenti di 185 milioni di euro previsti per il 1996 accusando il governo dell’Uzbekistan di non rispettare la scaletta economica stabilita. Tra il 1992 e il 1998, tuttavia, il governo uzbeko ha goduto di finanziamenti pari a 144 milioni di euro in aiuti umanitari e assistenza tecnica da parte di organizzazioni statunitensi.

Il Paese gode di ottime relazione bilaterali con gli Stati Uniti e con la Russia soprattutto in seguito alla partecipazione diretta alla “guerra contro il terrorismo”.

Negli ultimi anni si è intensificata anche la compravendita di armamenti, facendo dell’Uzbekistan il più grande esportatore di armi dell’Asia centrale con quasi 200 milioni di euro di ricavi. Teoricamente la censura è bandita dalla legge e la stampa uzbeka gode di ampie libertà. In pratica Human Right Watch e Amnesty International hanno denunciato “lo stretto controllo di tutti i media da parte dello Stato e la totale mancanza di punti di vista indipendenti”. Secondo tali organizzazioni “il giornalismo in questo Paese soffre di dilettantismo, incompetenza e mancanza di etica”.

Gli Stati Uniti hanno più volte accusato l’Uzbekistan per la mancanza di libertà d’espressione ma, dall’intervento in Afghanistan, secondo diverse organizzazioni umanitarie, le accuse sono drasticamente diminuite. I canali radiofonici e televisivi, ufficialmente indipendenti, appoggiano comunque il governo. Alla luce di queste considerazioni, in Uzbekistan sussistono tutte le premesse per scatenare una nuova guerra santa e la repressione indiscriminata del regime di Karimov è la causa prima dell’imminente conflitto.

Dopo la caduta dell’URSS, infatti, si diffuse nel Paese una delle più radicali interpretazioni dell’Islam: l’ideologia wahhabita. Questo fenomeno ha portato alla rinascita della militanza islamica. Due uomini presero la guida del movimento islamico uzbeko: il mullah Thoir Juldashev e Jumaboi Khodjiev, meglio conosciuto come Juma Namangani, il leader dell’IMU, il Movimento Islamico per l’Uzbekistan. Juma Namangani, 35 anni se è ancora vivo, per l’Uzbekistan mussulmano rappresenta una figura leggendaria. Nel 1987 è stato paracadutista nell’esercito sovietico durante l’invasione in Afghanistan e, durante la guerra contro i mujahidin, comincia a sviluppare una profonda ammirazione per il nemico, che lo porterà ad abbracciare la fede mussulmana.

Della sua persona esistono poche fotografie e non ha mai concesso interviste, d’altronde la sua organizzazione l’Imu, raramente rilascia dichiarazioni alla stampa. E’ comprovato che l’Imu sia stato finanziato da Osama bin Laden, il quale aveva tutta la convenienza di creare una nuova base operativa in Asia centrale, un’area dove in precedenza aveva avuto scarsi contatti.

Il gruppo dal 2000, risulta inserito nella lista delle Organizzazioni terroristiche straniere (Fto), redatta dall’Ufficio Antiterrorismo del Dipartimento di Stato americano. Alla fine del 2002 è cominciata a circolare la voce che Namangani fosse stato ucciso negli scontri intorno alla città di Kunduz (Afghanistan). La notizia, diffusa dal presidente del Tagikistan, Emomali Rakhomonov, non è stata mai confortata da prove e troppi dettagli risultano ancora contradditori. Di certo, se è ancora in vita, al più presto si riorganizzerà per colpire duramente il regime di Karimov e tutti gli obbiettivi americani nelle città uzbeche.

Ed ora iniziano i disordini nel Paese, e si può ragionevolmente supporre che sia solo il principio di una serie di azioni volte ad imporre uno stato islamico in Uzbekistan. Gli interrogativi da porsi a questo punto riguardano il come si comporteranno gli Stati Uniti, ma anche la stessa Russia, nei prossimi giorni, di fronte a questa improvvisa minaccia di espansione talebana verso nord.

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