Il lungo autunno del metano

11 novembre 2006

Pubblicato su Altrenotizie

Eni e Gazprom sono in fase di contrattazione sempre più serrata. I termini dell’accordo definitivo non sono ancora chiari, infatti la firma era stata fissata per lo scorso 15 ottobre ma è poi stata rinviata. Quel che si è capito è che si tratta di un’intesa che dovrebbe consentire a Eni di investire nei giacimenti russi di gas naturale e al gigante russo di vendere gas ai consumatori italiani.
Da oramai oltre un anno l’interesse di Gazprom è quello di entrare nella distribuzione italiana del gas e a questo scopo vorrebbe acquisire il 30% del capitale di Snam rete gas. In cambio promette ad Eni il rinnovo per altri dieci anni dei contratti che scadono nel 2017.

Secondo alcune indiscrezioni pubblicate dalla rivista L’Espresso il 9 novembre, Gazprom avrebbe anche chiesto il 40% del pacchetto azionario di Enipower, nonché il giacimento libico Elephant e l’impianto di liquefazione del gas egiziano Damietta. La contropartita offerta dal colosso russo sarebbe il proprio appoggio a Eni nell’acquisto di una partecipazione di minoranza in Novatek, il più grande produttore moscovita di gas non controllato dal Cremlino (che ne possiede solo il 20%), nonché una quota di Arctic Gas, uno dei frammenti di quella che fu la Yukos. Strade, queste, che l’Eni, sempre secondo L’Espresso, potrebbe percorrere insieme ad Enel.

  Dalle dichiarazioni di Alexander Medvedev, numero due di Gazprom, in Russia si è molto ottimisti sulla buona riuscita delle trattative in corso. L’Eni invece preferisce non sbilanciarsi e non rilasciare commenti. Tra pochi giorni, si svolgerà una nuova serie di incontri tra i vertici delle due aziende.
C’è da superare un importante nodo commerciale, che è proprio quello della distribuzione del metano al consumo finale. Le norme italiane infatti parlano chiaro, e non consentono ad un privato di entrare in Snam rete gas oltre il 20%. A questo si aggiunga un’importante considerazione “strategica”: quanto può essere utile al Paese lasciare una quota rilevante della rete ad un operatore straniero che controlla già la maggior parte delle importazioni italiane. Proprio per il ruolo che rivestirebbe Gazprom dopo l’eventuale accesso alla distribuzione, Confindustria, Cisl e il capo dell’Antitrust Antonio Catricalà si sono pronunciati contrari all’accordo.
Non solo: pare che Gazprom stia ipotizzando anche operazioni su Italgas e sulle multiutility regionali come la bolognese Hera, Ascopiave di Treviso o la Conservizi international: una colonizzazione in grande stile.

Vista l’importanza della posta in gioco, non stupisce la prudenza dell’Eni sulle “incertezze della politica energetica russa”. Incertezza che a dire il vero non si vede. Si vede anzi una politica di conquista famelica.
Nei mesi scorsi, con la trattativa già in corso, il Parlamento russo ha approvato una legge che assegna a Gazprom il monopolio sulle esportazioni di gas, rendendo meno redditizie le prospettive di investimento per gli stranieri; successivamente il Cremlino ha portato avanti una serie di azioni per assicurarsi il controllo dei grandi progetti. Il caso simbolo è quello dell’enorme giacimento artico di Shtockman, forse il più grande giacimento inesplorato rimasto al mondo. Il presidente Putin ha dichiarato che “Shtockman lo faranno i russi”, dopo avere promesso l’accesso al giacimento per anni a colossi come Total, Statoil, Hydro e Chevron. Gazprom sarà l’unica proprietaria del gigante nel fondo del mare di Barents.

Alcuni giorni fa, un editoriale sul Moscow Times ha affermato che il caso Shtockman potrebbe segnare la fine dell’armonia con gli investitori esteri. E dopo un iniziale silenzio, anche la diplomazia degli Stati Uniti ha duramente criticato l’operazione. Nonostante le accuse di “nazionalismo selvaggio”, secondo Putin, le compagnie occidentali che volevano partecipare al consorzio avrebbero dovuto proporre in cambio a Gazprom loro attività e riserve: “Non ci servono soldi per questi investimenti, possiamo recuperarli facilmente sui mercati finanziari”, ha dichiarato al quotidiano tedesco Süddeutsche Zeitung durante la sua recente visita in Germania.
E’ questa la nuova strategia del Cremlino, una specie di baratto dove le compagnie occidentali trasferiscono giacimenti, infrastrutture e quote di mercato, in cambio di un ruolo in Russia. I primi ad accettare lo scambio sono stati i tedeschi; ora potrebbe toccare agli italiani.

Nel frattempo, Gazprom si estende anche ad oriente: la Russia potrebbe esportare petrolio in Cina utilizzando il trasporto ferroviario.
L’ipotesi viene lanciata dal ministro russo dello Sviluppo economico e del Commercio, German Gref.: “E’ una possibilità se mostra più benefici dell’oleodotto”, spiega, aggiungendo che al momento le probabilità sono a favore dell’oleodotto. Intanto Gazprom ha acquisito il controllo di un gasdotto in costruzione tra Iran e Armenia, aumentando la sua partecipazione ad una joint venture chiamata ArmRosGaz, dal 45 al 58 per cento comprando un’ulteriore quota per 119 milioni di dollari. Quando sarà completata, la pipeline sarà la prima a portare il gas iraniano in Europa.

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L’estate del metano – http://www.altrenotizie.org/alt/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=750

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