Cosa si muove nella C.S.I?

09 Maggio 2005.

Pubblicato su Reporter Associati, Tribu Ribelli, Securityworld

Sommovimenti geopolitici che possono portare al disegno di nuovi equilibri e scenari, impensabili fino a poco tempo fa. Il 21 aprile il Congresso USA ha approvato un finanziamento di 100 milioni di dollari, dei quali ben 60 “per il proseguimento e il consolidamento” della rivoluzione arancione in Ucraina; gli altri 40 sono invece da dividersi tra i governi (amici o neo-amici) di Kirghizistan, Yemen, Marocco, Salvador, Mongolia e Afganistan.

Di sicuro non si tratta di un sostegno disinteressato da parte americana, come testimonia la recente visita di Condoleeza Rice a Mosca, in vista dell’incontro Bush-Putin di ieri a Mosca.

D’altronde, gli USA già da tempo sostengono finanziariamente (e politicamente) una delle piú inutili organizzazioni tra Stati: il GUUAM, che raggruppa Georgia, Ucraina, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan e Moldavia, guidata da due personaggi decisamente filoamericani (Yushenko e Saakashvili). Il GUUAM cerca un nuovo posizionamento sullo scacchiere euroasiatico, ovviamente in chiave antirussa e particolarmente anti Putin. A dire il vero già la visita della Rice, anzichè rafforzare il dialogo Bush-Putin, a causato alcuni “incidenti” dovuti alle dichiarazioni dell’americana circa l’alleanza stretta tra Russia e Bielorussia (“Auspichiamo che l’attuale presidente bielorusso non venga rieletto…”).

Nel caso in cui l’operato della Rice non debba bastare, allora sarà lo stesso Bush a scendere in campo: infatti sembra che il presidente USA, dopo il 9 maggio, incontri in Georgia Anatoly Lebedko, oppositore del regime bielorusso di Lukashenko a Minsk. Questo almeno riferisce il giornale “Civil Georgia” citando come fonte Michail Matschawariani, uno dei portavoce del parlamento di Tbilisi.

Lo scenario attuale, dopo la caduta dei governi filomoscoviti di Ucraina, Georgia e Kirghizistan, vede l’avanzamento delle fazioni politiche spinte dagli USA e di un intenso lavoro teso a rompere o ad evitare alleanze con la Russia di Putin. Il presidente russo, dal canto suo, cerca di non restare isolato e di tenersi strette le alleanze con gli altri paesi dell’area dell’ex-URSS (prima tra tutte quella con la dittatura bielorussa), saltellando tra le sue mille difficoltà, le aree di religione islamica presenti nel sud della CSI e l’onnipresente spina nel fianco cecena.

Il problema di fondo dell’intera regione è la mancanza di una direzione comune seguìta da parte dei governi delle repubbliche, escluse quelle già cadute sotto il controllo indiretto americano. In certi casi, alcune repubbliche sono addirittura sotto il governo di personaggi alquanto dubbi e pericolosi! E’ il caso del Turkmenistan, dove il presidente Niyazov ha provato a risanare le finanze statali in un modo alquanto originale: una legge che impone una tassa di 50.000 dollari (!) agli stranieri che sposano una turkmena. La legge l’ha poi lui stesso abolita.

Come si legge però sul sito dell’IFEX (International Freedom Expression eXchange – http://www.ifex.org/en/content/view/full/66289/ ) ora ha ordinato la chiusura delle biblioteche, motivando con un “non le frequenta nessuno e di libri non se ne leggono, quindi non servono”. Per ora rimangono ancora aperte le biblioteche delle universitá, ma chissà per quanto tempo.. Prima d’ora, un simile provvedimento era stato preso solo da Adolf Hitler. Appare peggiore quanto avviene in questi giorni in Uzbekistan.

Da alcune testimonianze trapelate grazie all’IWPR (Institute for War and Peace reporting – www.iwpr.net) esiste un decreto riservato del Ministero della Salute, del 2000, che ordina la riduzione del tasso di natalità nelle aree rurali del Paese, suggerendo di praticare isterectomie (asportazione dell’utero) alle donne subito dopo il parto in caso di provenienza dalle fasce povere di popolazione. In pratica, anzichè eliminare la povertà, si procede ad eliminare i poveri, sterilizzando sistematicamente le donne. Esattamente come qui in occidente si fa con i gatti randagi.

Il regime del presidente Islam Kharimov (tristemente noto per le gravissime violazioni dei diritti umani, e in particolare per il sistematico uso della tortura nelle carceri) ha effettivamente avviato un programma ufficiale per il controllo delle nascite al fine di rallentare la crescita della popolazione ed evitare una situazione demografica incompatibile con le scarse risorse del territorio (acqua e terreni coltivabili). Alcune testimonianze di donne uzbeche sterilizzate sono presenti sul sito di Peace Reporter ( http://www.peacereporter.net/dettaglio_articolo.php?idart=2360 ).

Il quadro generale che ne emerge è quello di una regione di vaste proporzioni, con risorse importanti distribuite un po’ a macchia di leopardo, caratterizzata da una forte instabilità geopolitica e da un conflitto tra Russia e USA per il predominio. Una regione dove poteri forti, sia istituzionali sia privati e spesso stranieri, hanno campo libero per espansioni di varia natura.

Quel che potrebbe accadere da qui a un anno.. è totalmente imprevedibile.

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