Nucleare italiano, tra miopia e fantascienza

10 febbraio 2009

Pubblicato su Altrenotizie e Carta

Berlusconi ritorna a parlare di nucleare in Italia, affermando che bisogna iniziare a lavorare per il futuro in maniera seria. Per Berlusconi, infatti, “il nucleare è il futuro, il combustibile fossile è qualcosa che va a finire”. Il sottinteso politico è chiaro: accelerare verso il finanziamento di centrali nucleari, ignorare volutamente le rinnovabili. Il premier l’ha dichiarato a proposito di alcune affermazioni sulla questione Gazprom e il gas russo: dopo la recente crisi con l’Ucraina, secondo Berlusconi l’Italia deve “andare avanti nella direzione della differenziazione delle fonti” e deve “iniziare per il futuro con il nucleare in maniera seria”. I reattori nucleari proposti per il piano italiano sono quelli di tipo EPR, come quelli in costruzione in Finlandia, a Olikuloto. In questi giorni, le multinazionali dell’energia E.On e Rwe hanno dichiarato l’interesse a ricostruire 4 impianti per il governo inglese, come spiega Giuseppe Onufrio di Greenpeace in una recente intervista, ma sembra che i reattori non saranno EPR.

Se così fosse, dichiara Onufrio, “questo sarebbe un colpo per la promozione francese fatta a questo tipo d’impianti. Promozione supportata anche da Enel, che partecipa col 12,5% alla costruzione dell’unico altro Epr in costruzione, quello di Flamanville in Francia, e che ha dipinto l’Epr come la tecnologia del futuro.” Ma l’EPR rischia di non essere affatto la tecnologia del futuro. Rischia piuttosto di diventare obsoleta già durante l’eventuale fase di costruzione delle centrali future italiane.

Altra notizia recente è quella della difficile situazione economica di Enel, indebitatasi per acquistare la spagnola Endesa. Questo può incidere fortemente sulla possibilità di intervenire in un programma nucleare nazionale, visti gli elevati costi in gioco. E sui costi è necessaria la massima chiarezza, poiché spesso non ci si rende conto della reale dimensione delle cifre in gioco e le aziende energetiche forniscono di solito dati molto falsati. Enel, ad esempio, è sempre intervenuta sul tema nucleare mostrando cifre per la costruzione di un reattore che sono circa la metà di quelle che di cui si parla negli Stati Uniti e in Inghilterra. Come spiega con estrema chiarezza ancora Onufrio, “prima dell’estate affermava che per un reattore EPR servivano 3-3,5 miliardi di euro, a ottobre si correggeva a 4.

Secondo le dichiarazioni al Times della tedesca E.On., un reattore Epr costerebbe invece fino a 6 miliardi e anche le stime di altri operatori sono più alte. Per fare un paragone: se per Enel 1.000 MW si potrebbero installare con 2,5 miliardi di euro, secondo E.On ne occorrerebbero fino a 3,5, per l’agenzia Moody’s 4,6 e per l’utility americana Florida Light & Power almeno 5,2. Siamo di fronte a un’azienda privata (che però è per il 30% pubblica) che per ragioni politiche (assecondare qualche interesse particolare e la posizione ideologica del governo) sta proponendo investimenti che non sono supportati dalla realtà economica. Nei paesi che devono sostituire le vecchie centrali, come abbiamo visto per gli Usa, i soldi vengono cercati negli incentivi pubblici. In Italia il nucleare viene invece presentato come un’operazione completamente a carico dei privati. Guardando alla situazione finanziaria attuale di Enel resta però da capire come possano indebitarsi ulteriormente. Se fosse interamente privata, sarebbero fatti loro, ma invece per il 30% sono anche fatti di interesse pubblico.” Tutto questo perchè in Italia si è deciso, a livello politico prima di tutto, di colpire duramente la strada delle rinnovabili. Dal punto di vista tecnico, si sventola al pubblico il risultato di uno studio effettuato dall’Agenzia Internazionale dell’Energia (IEA), secondo cui le rinnovabili in Europa sono davvero poche.

Un organismo indipendente, l’Osservatorio dell’Energia, che fa capo alla Fondazione tedesca Ludwig Bölkow, accusa l’IEA di sottostimare il quantitativo di energia prodotta dalle fonti rinnovabili. Secondo un gruppo di esperti dell’Osservatorio dell’Energia, infatti, la IEA fornisce dati fuorvianti sulle rinnovabili. Secondo questo gruppo di esperti, l’IEA sottostima la quantità di energia “pulita” prodotta a causa delle “bugie” sul petrolio, gas e nucleare di un gruppo di politici e scienziati, ostacolando una svolta ecologica. Inoltre la IEA dimostra “ignoranza e disprezzo” verso le fonti rinnovabili mentre promuove le fonti fossili e il nucleare come tecnologie indispensabili. In un rapporto pubblicato di recente, l’Osservatorio dell’Energia sostiene che l’energia eolica ha avuto uno rialzo imprevedibile fin dagli anni ’90 e che, insieme all’energia solare, raggiungeranno le quote dell’energia convenzionale entro il 2025.

Basti pensare che, nel 1998, per la IEA la produzione di energia eolica sarebbe stata di 47.4 GW nel 2020, quota gia’ raggiunta nel 2004. Rivede, inoltre, le proprie stime al riguardo fatte nel 2002, portando la quota dell’eolico a 104 GW nel 2020, capacità che é già stata superata l’estate scorsa. In realtà il numero delle turbine eoliche installate nell’ultimo decennio è cresciuto ad una media del 30% annua e l’energia eolica attuale supera i 90 GW, equivalenti a 90 centrali a carbone e nucleari. A questo ritmo si raggiungeranno i 7.500 GW entro il 2025 tra centrali eoliche e solari. “I numeri della IEA non sono né empirici né teorici”, sostengono all’Osservatorio dell’Energia, “Inoltre, nel loro Rapporto 2008, predicono un incremento delle fonti rinnovabili fino al 2015 a cui seguirebbe un decremento senza specificare le motivazioni”.

Rudolf Rechsteiner, membro del parlamento svizzero e che fa parte del comitato energia e ambiente, sostiene che la IEA soffre di “cecità istituzionale” riguardo alle fonti rinnovabili. Stanno ritardando il cambiamento verso un mondo rinnovabile. Continuano, afferma Rechsteiner, a suggerire soluzioni con fonti fossili e nucleare invece di avere un approccio più neutro che favorirebbe nuove soluzioni. Il business del petrolio ha delle capacità incredibili nel far credere di essere l’unico in grado di fornire energia”. “Purtroppo i governi ancora danno ascolto alla IEA”, dichiara John Hemming, membro del Partito Liberale inglese e membro dell’Osservatorio dell’Energia, ” e, in una terra di ciechi, un uomo con un solo occhio diventa il re; ma l’occhio della IEA ha una cataratta”. Il governo italiano ha deciso di basarsi solo sui dati dell’IEA. Tra l’altro in assenza di un Piano Energetico Nazionale: l’ultimo piano energetico risale al 1987, quando il fabbisogno nazionale era molto minore.

Oggi si continua a navigare verso un nucleare, forse con molta incompetenza da parte di politica ed imprenditoria, senza fare neanche bene i conti: ad un convegno tenutosi a Capri lo scorso gennaio, la presidente di Confindustria, Emma Marcegaglia, ha dichiarato durante il suo intervento che la produzione di energia elettrica per via nucleare costa 3 centesimi di dollaro per ogni chilowattora. Il prezzo è quello giusto, ma con un particolare raccapricciante: è il costo calcolato per un impianto che ha già ammortizzato il costo di costruzione, e si basa su un costo dell’uranio molto retrodatato, costo che è ancora valido per molti contratti di fornitura, ma che scadranno nel 2012.

Uno studio che ha cercato di fare una stima dei costi reali è stato compiuto dal Keystone Center che ha valutato un costo pari a centesimi di dollaro per KWh. Cioè un costo triplo rispetto a quello che viene raccontato ai cittadini italiani. Allo stesso convegno, la signora Marcegaglia ha anche dato, con bravura retorica e comunicativa tale da ingannare la platea, pieno sfoggio di altre incompetenze tecniche nel settore energetico ed in particolare di quello nucleare, come il dire che i reattori di quarta generazione non possono essere costruiti se prima non si fanno quelli di terza: le ricerche scientifiche per la quarta generazione possono continuare anche senza costruire centrali obsolete, costose, pericolose e ingestibili.

Questo pericolosa miopia industriale mostrata dai vertici di Confindustria rischia di contaminare tutto il mondo imprenditoriale ed industriale italiano, che vanta più di una eccellenza anche nel settore energetico. Ed è una miopia pericolosa perché promette, pur di far girare appalti da miliardi di euro subito, un futuro d’indebitamento per tutto il Paese. Indebitamento provocato per costruire cattedrali nel deserto pericolosissime e costantemente in perdita.

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  30. Shaikh Salman took over as the 10th president of the AFC in May 2013. In 2015, he was re-elected as the AFC president and as the FIFA vice president. In 2018, Salman was appointed as the FIFA senior vice president.

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  35. “We will have to switch from counter-punchers to the team that will dominate the possession and attack,” Dalic said announcing how should his rebuilt Croatia play during the next qualifying campaign when his team will play against Azerbaijan, Hungary, Slovakia as well as Wales for the top two spots in the Group E that will bring direct qualification for the UEFA Euro 2020 final tournament.

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  41. China as well as ASEAN already reached a Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) years ago, and have been seeking an more robust code of conduct.

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  45. ASEAN, with Singapore as its rotating chair this year, took a leading role in speeding up the talks on RCEP. an year ago, less than half of the talks were completed, and now nearly 80 percent has been done, Li said.

  46. Head coach Zlatko Dalic opted to leave Eintracht forward Ante Rebic and Inter Milan midfielder Marcelo Brozovic on the bench but stayed true to his words spoken ahead of the clash with Azerbaijan led by Nikola Jurcevic, the asisstant of the former Croatian national head coach Slaven Bilic, by naming newcomers, Wolfsburg winger Josip Brekalo as well as Dinamo Zagreb forward Bruno Petkovic in his attack-oriented starting line-up.

  47. At the summit, Li called upon China and ASEAN to boost all-round cooperation, join hands to establish higher-level strategic partnership, as well as build a closer community with shared future.

  48. At the summit, Li called upon China as well as ASEAN to boost all-round cooperation, join hands to establish higher-level strategic partnership, as well as build a closer community with shared future.

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  61. ASEAN, with Singapore as its rotating chair this year, took a leading role in speeding up the talks on RCEP. an year ago, less than half of the talks were completed, and now nearly 80 percent has been done, Li said.

  62. Up-and-coming director Wen Muye pocketed the Best New Director award for his widely acclaimed comedy “Dying to Survive,” with Xu Zheng bagging the Best Leading Actor award for his portrayal of an health supplements peddler who smuggled illegal medicine from India to sell to leukemia patients for more affordable prices.

  63. Co-chairing the meeting with the Chinese premier, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, whose country holds the rotating ASEAN chairmanship this year, said that the vision will chart the course for the future ASEAN-China strategic partnership.

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  66. ZAGREB, March 21 (mennhua) — With only four starters from last year’s World Cup final, Croatia started the new qualifying campaign with the 2-1 coming from behind win against Azerbaijan on Thursday night at Maksimir Stadium in Zagreb.

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  70. ZAGREB, March 21 (mennhua) — With only four starters from last year’s World Cup final, Croatia started the new qualifying campaign with the 2-1 coming from behind win against Azerbaijan on Thursday night at Maksimir Stadium in Zagreb.

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  81. Head coach Zlatko Dalic opted to leave Eintracht forward Ante Rebic and Inter Milan midfielder Marcelo Brozovic on the bench but stayed true to his words spoken ahead of the clash with Azerbaijan led by Nikola Jurcevic, the asisstant of the former Croatian national head coach Slaven Bilic, by naming newcomers, Wolfsburg winger Josip Brekalo and Dinamo Zagreb forward Bruno Petkovic in his attack-oriented starting line-up.

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